The New York Giants are under the microscope this offseason after allowing the “Hard Knocks” cameras behind the curtain.
The G-Men added and subtracted on both sides of the ball heading into the 2024 season, but their fate could be the same as last year’s 6-11 SU finish (8-8-1 ATS). At least that’s what New York’s season win total says (6.5 Under -135).
With an improved defense and one of the least talented offenses, the Giants will continue to be an Under lean following a 6-11 Over/Under tally in 2023.
I break down “Big Blue” and give my best NFL picks and predictions in my 2024 New York Giants betting preview.
New York Giants odds
| Win Super Bowl | +15,000 |
| Win conference | +7,000 |
| Win division | +1,800 |
| Make playoffs | +400 |
| Over 6.5 wins | +115 |
| Under 6.5 wins | -130 |
Best futures bet: Under 6.5 Wins -135
Under 6.5 victories for New York is as expensive as -150 as we approach August, and the price is warranted. The Giants are point spread favorites in only two games taking on the sixth hardest sked in the league. While seven of their contests have spreads within a field goal (-3 to +3), they come against opponents in better shape than the G-Men – especially on offense.
New York Giants at a glance: Offensive offense
A new defensive coordinator in Shane Bowen and a solid front seven, headlined by Brian Burns, Bobby Okereke and Kayvon Thibodeaux, will be the backbone of New York… a back that will be broken by the mediocre QB play of Daniel Jones and an offensive depth chart as shallow as a puddle.
What will win bets: Defense
Bowen is installing a “bend but don’t break” defense with plenty of zone and two high safeties to patch a sketchy secondary, leaning into the defensive front to clean up the mess between the sticks.
The Giants will protect against the big play and make opponents dink and dump their way to paydirt, chewing up clock and making good on the added points being forked over by oddsmakers.
What will lose bets: Offense
Honestly, the loss of Saquon Barkley doesn’t hurt the Giants as much as the front office’s bewildering commitment to Daniel Jones. When healthy, his running helps offset his poor passing decisions but he’s rarely healthy and coming off a blown ACL.
New York put racing tires on that Toyota Tercel of a QB by drafting targets Malik Nabers and Theo Johnson, giving the thin skill positions a shot of potential. However, in order to cover spreads, you need points and those could be hard to come by for the G-Men.
New York Giants schedule + spot bet: Least of the East?
Luckily, there aren’t many snags in New York’s schedule in terms of situational spots or compressed games (BTW, how the hell did it get four primetime games?). Look-ahead lines have the Giants getting more than a field goal in 10 games and no Over/Under total strays higher than 45.5 points.
New York is forecasted to finish last in the NFC East and is just 4-7-1 SU in divisional games under head coach Brian Daboll. It’s set as a pup in all but one of its six NFC East engagements in 2024. However, the Giants have walked away from those rivalries with an 8-4 ATS record.
Anyone following that Under 6.5 wins could get a scare down the stretch considering the Giants play only three true road games in the final nine outings of the season, thanks to a trip to Germany to face the Carolina Panthers in Week 10. In fact, eight of the final 13 games come in MetLife Stadium, where Big Blue is 11-5-1 ATS under Daboll.
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Minnesota |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Washington |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Cleveland |
| 4 | Thursday, September 26 | vs. Dallas |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Seattle |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Cincinnati |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. Philadelphia |
| 8 | Monday, October 28 | @ Pittsburgh |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs. Washington |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. Carolina |
| 11 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. Tampa Bay |
| 13 | Thursday, November 28 | @ Dallas |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | vs. New Orleans |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. Baltimore |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Atlanta |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Indianapolis |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Philadelphia |
Spot bet: Week 9 vs. Washington (-1.5)
If there’s a spot to circle it would be the game before that international affair, with the Giants coming home in Week 9 to host the Washington Commanders. This is one of just two games in which New York is giving points.
The Giants have a short turnaround after playing at Pittsburgh on Monday night and will also juggle the logistics and lingering look-ahead trap of the trip to Germany. Crossing the pond has proved problematic the week before, with teams going 6-14-1 ATS in the game before an international appearance since 2021, including 3-6 ATS last season.
Giants will lose, but Daniel Jones will pass
- Awards
- TDs
- Yards
| To win MVP | +15,000 |
| To win OPOY | +15,000 |
| To win CPOY | +1,600 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +10,000 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +12,000 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 16.5 passing TD | +110 |
| Under 16.5 passing TD | -135 |
| 25+ passing TD | +1,500 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 2,800.5 passing yards | +110 |
| Under 2,800.5 passing yards | -135 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +2,000 |
BACK TO TOP
Best prop: Over 2,800.5 passing yards (+110)
I’ve pooped on Jones a lot, but should he (and his teammates) survive the majority of the 2024 season, he’ll crack 2,800 yards through the air.
After ranking bottom of the NFL in explosive plays, the Giants are emphasizing stretching the field, and with the team likely playing from behind most weeks, Jones will have chances to chuck it. Season-long projections have him flirting with 3,200 yards.
Before being held to six games in 2023, he went Over 2,800 passing yards in three of his first four seasons (2,428 yards over 11 games in 2021). The Giants play eight games against defenses ranked 21st or worse in EPA allowed per dropback last year.
New York Giants trend: Non-Conference Unders
The Giants have been a hot Under play with Daboll on the sideline (14-21-1 O/U) and are at their best when it comes to the most boring bet in football when taking on AFC opponents.
New York was a perfect 0-5 Over/Under in non-conference games in 2023 and is 1-9 O/U versus the AFC the last two seasons. This trend goes beyond Daboll’s tenure in East Rutherford though, with the G-Men boasting a 7-20 O/U record in non-conference games since 2018.
New York Giants’ non-conference games
- Week 3 @ Cleveland 42.5
- Week 6 vs Cincinnati 45
- Week 8 @ Pittsburgh 42.5
- Week 15 vs Baltimore 44
- Week 17 vs Indianapolis 43.5
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Senior Betting Analyst
In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
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His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”
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