Two polarizing teams will meet in Arrowhead on Sunday as the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs who sit as slight -1.5 home favorites in the NFL odds.
With a tough passing matchup and the weather also being a factor, is there some value in fading some tertiary pass-catchers on the Bills? These guys could be afterthoughts in Buffalo’s offensive plans coming out of the bye, especially with a possible Dawson Knox return.
I break down the Week 14 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Bills vs. Chiefs on December 10.
Bills vs Chiefs odds
Bills vs Chiefs predictions
The Buffalo Bills’ offense turned to more three-WR sets once tight end Dawson Knox hit the shelf in Week 8. Over those five games that Knox was out, receiver Khalil Shakir saw a big boost in snap share and had a 77% route share in Week 12 but was also fifth on the teams in targets despite a 47-yard performance.
The No. 3 receiver could see a big drop in snaps and routes this week as Knox was designated for return from IR and was a full go at practice on Wednesday. He has until Saturday to be officially activated but was in full pads on Thursday and the Bills bringing him in and running more 12-personnel could boost the run game vs. a susceptible rush defense.
Shakir averaged 50 snaps per game with Knox out and the offense going three-WR heavy. However, the receiver averaged 16.4 snaps per game with Knox in and never topped 24 snaps.
Looking at his routes with Knox in the lineup, Shakir averaged just 5.5 routes per game and less than a target per match. His receiving total opened at 40.5 yards (-114 to the Under) and that’s an easy Under play for me.
Not only should his reps drop if Knox does suit up, but bettors are also getting a season-high number at 40.5. It closed at 31.5 vs. the Eagles in Week 12 and is still longer than his previous season-high mark of 35.5.
The worst-case scenario is Knox sits, but this is still a high number for Shakir even in his recent role. He’s the fourth-best pass option on the team and the Bills could be running the ball more this week.
Double-digit winds are expected and there’s a reason this total sits at 48.5 when each of the last five meetings have closed at 53 or higher. The Kansas City Chiefs defense ranks second in success rate vs. the pass and fourth in EPA/dropback.
THE BLITZ is also on board here as it is projecting 33.2 receiving yards making this Under one of the best +EV plays in this game.
With Knox looking more like a go than not, the Bills will change their offensive approach with more two-TE sets which could also include more running vs. a defense that is very injured at the linebacker position.
This number could close around 30.5 once the dust settles and Knox is confirmed to play. Shakir did not have a receiving total while Knox was in the lineup. I’d feel comfortable playing it down to 29.5 if Knox is a go.
My best bet: Khalil Shakir Under 40.5 receiving yards (-130 at PointsBet)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bills vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Khalil Shakir Under 40.5 receiving yards Under 48.5Dalvin Cook Over 42.5 rushing yards
+487 at FanDuel
This is pending Knox’s return. If the tight end is a go, that would improve the team’s run rate, decrease reps from Shakir, and keep this game at a slower pace which favors the Under.
The Chiefs aren’t getting in shootouts this year thanks to an elite defense and both teams have been profitable to the Under in 2023. The weather could also play a factor here which would benefit the run game as well.
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